What Are The Chances...?

 Let's start with the wonderful world of probability!



Probability can be a tricky little monster, but not if you know the steps to succeed. What is the probability of landing on heads 3 times in a row on a coin toss? What are the chances of choosing an ace out of a standard deck of cards? What is the probability that you will pull a red, then a white, then another red ball out of a bag that contains 5 red balls and 6 white balls?

I will answer these and more questions for you, but lets start with the basic.

Probability (P) =  # of desired outcomes
                            # of possible outcomes

Let's look at an EXAMPLE:

What are the chances of choosing an ace out of a standard deck of card?

# of possible outcomes: 52 (52 cards in a deck)
# of desired outcomes:  4 (4 aces in a deck of cards)

Therefore, the probability of choosing an ace is 4/52...but we much REDUCE, REDUCE, REDUCE!

P = 1/13

Let's look at another EXAMPLE:

Refer to the spinner above for the following questions:

What it the probability of the spinner landing on red?

First, count the # of possible outcomes. In this case, there are 16 possible outcomes.
Second, count the # of red slots: 6
Third, show the # of desirable outcomes (red) over the number of possible outcomes: 6/16
Fourth, simplify. P = 3/8


Now, what is the probability of landing on...

Yellow?   P = 3/16
Green?   P = 4/16 = 1/4
Blue?      P = 3/16

CHALLENGE: using the information above, can you answer the question posed in the illustration above? Look at the bottom of this post for the answer!

I sure hope that this has helped you to have a better understanding of probability. I will answer some more complicated questions about probability soon, so make sure to check in later!

Thanks for visiting!

~ Tammy

P.S. Here is a link to some fun probability games for practice:
http://classroom.jc-schools.net/basic/math-prob.html
One of my favorite games at the above link is the fish tank game. Here is a link for that game:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/education/mathsfile/shockwave/games/fish.html

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So, what probability gives you the best chance on the circus spinner above? You must add the probability for each color.

Yellow or Red:     P = 9/16
Blue or Yellow:    P = 6/16
Green or Blue:    P = 7/16
Green or Red:    P = 10/16 <--------This combination will give you the best chance!